Three predictions for sustainable packaging in 2023

1. Reverse material substitution will continue to grow

 

Cereal box liners, paper bottles, protective e-commerce packaging ...... The biggest trend is the "paperification" of consumer packaging. In other words - plastic is being replaced by paper, mainly because consumers see paper as having renewable and recyclable advantages compared to polyolefins and PET.

 

There will be plenty of paper to recycle. Reduced consumer spending and the growth of e-commerce have led to an increase in the supply of available paperboard, helping to keep prices relatively low. According to recycling expert Chaz Miller, the price of OCC (used corrugated cardboard) in the northeastern US is currently around 37.50 US per tonne, compared to 172.50 US per tonne a year ago.

 

But there is also potentially a big problem: much of the packaging is a mix of paper and plastic that fails the recyclability test. These include paper bottles with internal plastic bags, paper/plastic carton combinations used to produce beverage containers, flexible packaging and wine bottles that claim to be compostable.

 

These do not appear to solve any environmental problems, only consumer perceptions. In the long run, this will put them on the same trajectory as plastic containers that claim to be recyclable but in reality will never be recycled. This could be good news for chemical recycling advocates, as they will have time to prepare for mass recycling of plastic containers when the cycle is repeated.

 

2. The desire to promote compostable packaging will worsen

 

So far, I have never felt that compostable packaging has an important role to play outside of food service applications and venues. The materials and packaging under discussion are not recycled, are likely to be non-scalable and are probably not cost effective.

 

(1) Home composting is not available in sufficient quantities to make even the slightest difference.

 

(2) Industrial composting is still in its infancy.

 

(3) Packaging and food service projects are not always well received by industrial facilities.

 

(4) Composting, whether of "bio" or conventional plastics, is a non-recycling activity that produces only greenhouse gases and little else.

 

The polylactic acid (PLA) industry is beginning to abandon its long-held claims of industrial compostability and is seeking to use the material for recycling and biomaterial claims. The bio-based resin claim may actually have merit, but only if its functional, economic and environmental performance (in terms of life-cycle greenhouse gas production) can exceed similar targets for other plastics, particularly high-density polyethylene (HDPE), polypropylene (PP), polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and, in some cases, low-density polyethylene (LDPE).

 

A recent researcher found that around 60% of compostable plastics from households are not fully decomposed, thus contributing to soil contamination. The study also found that consumers were confused about the meaning behind compostability claims:

 

"14% of plastic packaging samples were certified as 'industrially compostable' and 46% were not certified as compostable. Of the biodegradable and compostable plastics tested under different home composting conditions, most did not fully decompose, including 60% of those certified as home compostable'.

 

3. Secondary packaging to become a new pressure point

 

Not only China, but the problem of excessive packaging plagues many countries, and the EU is also looking to tackle the problem of over-packaging, with proposed draft regulations stating that from 2030, "each packing list must be reduced to its weight, volume and minimum size of the packaging layer, for example by limiting blank space." Under these proposals, by 2040, EU member states must reduce packaging waste per capita by 15% compared to 2018.

 

Secondary packaging traditionally includes external corrugated boxes, stretch and shrink film, corner boards and straps. However, it may also include external primary packaging such as shelf cartons used for cosmetics (e.g. creams), health and beauty aids (e.g. toothpaste) and over-the-counter (OTC) medicines (e.g. aspirin). There are concerns that the new regulations could lead to the removal of these cartons, causing disruption to sales and supply chains.

 

What does the new year hold for future trends in the sustainable packaging market? Let's wait and see!

1. Reverse material substitution will continue to grow

 

Cereal box liners, paper bottles, protective e-commerce packaging ...... The biggest trend is the "paperification" of consumer packaging. In other words - plastic is being replaced by paper, mainly because consumers see paper as having renewable and recyclable advantages compared to polyolefins and PET.

 

There will be plenty of paper to recycle. Reduced consumer spending and the growth of e-commerce have led to an increase in the supply of available paperboard, helping to keep prices relatively low. According to recycling expert Chaz Miller, the price of OCC (used corrugated cardboard) in the northeastern US is currently around 37.50 US per tonne, compared to 172.50 US per tonne a year ago.

 

But there is also potentially a big problem: much of the packaging is a mix of paper and plastic that fails the recyclability test. These include paper bottles with internal plastic bags, paper/plastic carton combinations used to produce beverage containers, flexible packaging and wine bottles that claim to be compostable.

 

These do not appear to solve any environmental problems, only consumer perceptions. In the long run, this will put them on the same trajectory as plastic containers that claim to be recyclable but in reality will never be recycled. This could be good news for chemical recycling advocates, as they will have time to prepare for mass recycling of plastic containers when the cycle is repeated.

 

2. The desire to promote compostable packaging will worsen

 

So far, I have never felt that compostable packaging has an important role to play outside of food service applications and venues. The materials and packaging under discussion are not recycled, are likely to be non-scalable and are probably not cost effective.

 

(1) Home composting is not available in sufficient quantities to make even the slightest difference.

 

(2) Industrial composting is still in its infancy.

 

(3) Packaging and food service projects are not always well received by industrial facilities.

 

(4) Composting, whether of "bio" or conventional plastics, is a non-recycling activity that produces only greenhouse gases and little else.

 

The polylactic acid (PLA) industry is beginning to abandon its long-held claims of industrial compostability and is seeking to use the material for recycling and biomaterial claims. The bio-based resin claim may actually have merit, but only if its functional, economic and environmental performance (in terms of life-cycle greenhouse gas production) can exceed similar targets for other plastics, particularly high-density polyethylene (HDPE), polypropylene (PP), polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and, in some cases, low-density polyethylene (LDPE).

 

A recent researcher found that around 60% of compostable plastics from households are not fully decomposed, thus contributing to soil contamination. The study also found that consumers were confused about the meaning behind compostability claims:

 

"14% of plastic packaging samples were certified as 'industrially compostable' and 46% were not certified as compostable. Of the biodegradable and compostable plastics tested under different home composting conditions, most did not fully decompose, including 60% of those certified as home compostable'.

 

3. Secondary packaging to become a new pressure point

 

Not only China, but the problem of excessive packaging plagues many countries, and the EU is also looking to tackle the problem of over-packaging, with proposed draft regulations stating that from 2030, "each packing list must be reduced to its weight, volume and minimum size of the packaging layer, for example by limiting blank space." Under these proposals, by 2040, EU member states must reduce packaging waste per capita by 15% compared to 2018.

 

Secondary packaging traditionally includes external corrugated boxes, stretch and shrink film, corner boards and straps. However, it may also include external primary packaging such as shelf cartons used for cosmetics (e.g. creams), health and beauty aids (e.g. toothpaste) and over-the-counter (OTC) medicines (e.g. aspirin). There are concerns that the new regulations could lead to the removal of these cartons, causing disruption to sales and supply chains.

 

What does the new year hold for future trends in the sustainable packaging market? Let's wait and see!